While BP has taken some correct steps in its crisis response, one of the big takeways is the power of social media. Twitter, Facebook, blogs and message boards have taken over traditional media to harness and form public opinion. It all starts with the video feed of the streaming oil. Web sites from NPR to CNN have embedded that feed with counters displaying the amount of oil and the number of days since the accident. iPhone has several apps related to the crisis including games and journalist apps. One company has created a contest to create the new BP logo. They already have thousands of entries.
http://www.logomyway.com/contestView.php?contestId=1746

BP’s own gulf spill twitter account has 16,000 followers vs. an anti-BP Twitter account of 100,000+ followers.

Until the stream of oil is plugged and the counters can stop, BP’s brand and reputation will continue to sink to dire proportions despite spending $100 million on advertising to try to change public perceptions. Money and press conferences are simply no match for social media.

Early in the crisis, BP made a few mistakes:
- Set public expectations too high, too early regarding spill flow, duration and impact
- Lacked empathetic tone in early public statements
- Appeared more intent on blame avoidance than problem-solving
- Failed to appreciate ubiquity of news media and social media
- Should have identified limited media role of CEO

As companies seek to learn from the BP oil crisis, one key element we recommend is having a dedicated crisis team that practices its own “Deepwater Horizon” before it occurs. By going through simulations and tabletop exercises, companies will see firsthand how prepared they are to handle a crisis in the 21st Century.

As we ‘win’ the war on terrorism overseas, today’s terrorists are different. When the average executive thinks about what a terrorist looks like, he/she likely imagines groups of individuals plotting massive acts of destruction to bring their agenda to an international stage. However, as terrorist cells are broken up, much smaller groups and individuals can operate under the radar. We saw this with the recent attack attempt on Times Square.

Smaller and more frequent localized attacks may be the new norm. Car bombings and suicide bombings may be more easily executed vs. large scale attacks like 9/11. Large scale attacks take a lot of planning and flawless execution and have a greater chance of being prevented. Smaller scale attacks can be conducted quickly and more frequently putting pressure on us to ‘bat 1000′ to stop them every time.

Terrorists are getting more sophisticated with technology. While the methods of an attack may sometimes be crude in nature (like Times Square and the Christmas Day bombing attempts), terrorists are using the Internet to train each other, communicate via social networks, and to monitor the media to get an edge on what the authorities are doing. It’s inevitable that many of today’s terrorists will continue to use the same technologies we all use to do our own jobs.

The net-net: businesses should plan for an increase in disruptions from terrorism on a local level. It’s not so much about the ‘big one’ anymore.

On the surface, it sounds like another plot by Al Qaeda to bring attention to their agenda on a global stage. But when you look deeper into this specific foiled plot, some worrisome trends are appearing.

First, we’re learning that the three individuals wanted to set off explosions attached to their bodies – like suicide bombers. While this is an unfortunate practice in other countries, this has not been the typical method in the United States….or, so we thought. I recently mentioned on several client webcasts that it is only a matter of time before terrorists resort to suicide bomber methods in the U.S. Unfortunately, we are not very prepared to deal with threats of this nature.

Second, terrorists seem to be infatuated with targeting transportation. When many of us get on airplanes these days, it’s not uncommon to think about 9/11, or at least the shoe bomber when we are forced to take our shoes off to go through security. Imagine the disruption in NYC if the Times Square subway station was rendered useless for 6 months due to a terrorist attack? Imagine the new security measures that would be put in place going forward. Yikes !

Finally, the terrorists foiled in the 2009 NYC attack stated they wanted to kill a lot of people. The fact is, for many terrorists this is not their primary goal. Many times, a terrorist conducts an act to cause the most fear, anxiety and disruption. Not casualties.

As we plan for the unexpected, suicide bombers may become a very difficult reality we may all face. Putting plans and programs in place to deal with these types of threats seems like the timely thing to do given this new information.

Now what if a company’s entire workforce could use their mobile phones during a crisis? What would be possible with today’s technology? I can think of a few: calling my company’s management team and crisis team at the touch of a button, sending and receiving critical emergency information, finding response protocols on hundreds of threats, accessing my company’s business continuity plans, and getting breaking news and alerts.

In today’s ever-connected, ever-mobile ecosystem, mobile preparedness apps make a lot of sense.

The report’s assessment was based on four factors:

1. There is direct evidence that terrorists are trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction.

2. Acquiring WMD fits the tactical profile of terrorists.

3. Terrorists have demonstrated global reach and the organizational sophistication to obtain and use
WMD.

4. The opportunity to acquire and use such weapons is growing exponentially because of the global
proliferation of nuclear material and biological technologies.

When we get to the actual results of the report, one area is the most daunting: “F” in responding to and preventing biological attacks. In fact, the report predicts that a WMD will be used by terrorists by the end of 2013 and states that a biological attack is most likely to be used.

So, should we be surprised? Not at all. The U.S. has not done enough. In combatting biological attacks, we do not have sufficient surveillance or vaccines. For a nuclear/dirty bomb attack, there is radiological material in the world that is unaccounted for and can easily get into the hands of terrorists.

Considering the Government is basically giving itself an “F”, this reports brings even more urgency on the importance for preparing our businesses, communities and families from terrorism.

While this is a quickly evolving event, we have a few early perspectives to share:

-The first 72 hours of a major crisis event are crucial. When people don’t know what to do, and infrastructure is severely damaged, and government resources we think we can count on are not available, it creates a ‘perfect storm’ crisis. More people may perish from lack of food, water, shelter and sanitation than from the actual event itself.

-The human psyche. When a crisis of this magnitude occurs, those affected go into shock and a state of disbelief along with an adrenaline rush to keep themselves and loved ones safe. If resources are not helping the general population after the first 12 hours (medical care, food, water, shelter, etc..), those that are affected will become angry and defiant. They will do whatever it takes to survive and to help the survival of loved ones. Good people will do bad things. It will get even worse when many loved ones die because aid did not come quickly enough. We are starting to see this now in Haiti.

-Civil unrest is inevitable. Haiti needs to be secured by a well-trained military group quickly to keep order. We can expect clashes and more deaths from military interventions.

-Where will displaced people go? Haiti has a population of 8.7 million. Let’s say that 1/3 of the population is displaced. That’s an incredible 2.8 million people that need to be relocated. Where will they go? A neighboring country? Also, how will we mobilize them? By boat? The largest cruise ship in the world can transport 3,600 people. That would mean almost 800 trips to transport 1/3 of the population. After Hurricane Katrina, part of the population in New Orleans relocated to Houston, Atlanta, and other cities fairly easily….and never returned. What is the solution for Haiti? And who will take them?

-Communication is critical. With power, internet and cell towers down, people are turning to twitter, Facebook and text messaging. We often find that the lowest forms of communication are used. For example, when I was in New York over 9/11 there were lines 100 people deep to use pay phones. Anyone seen a pay phone recently?

Many more lessons and thoughts will come out of this tragic event that will hopefully provide new insights into how to prepare and manage countries, communities and businesses through a crisis of this magnitude.

Stay tuned…..

So….it’s over right? No ! This is a two year pandemic with potentially several waves in the U.S. next year. One reason is that the southern hemisphere will continue to spread H1N1 in their flu seasons, which occur on opposite cycles from the northern hemisphere. The luxury of air travel and rapid movement of people around the world assures us that H1N1 will cycle back and forth between hemispheres for two years.

Also, we have been watching H1N1 D225G mutations. This is a new mutation that has been occurring in several countries that attack the lungs with the same characteristics in severity as the horrific 1918 pandemic. While it appears that D225G has not spread from person to person yet, it has a high mortality rate and is being closely monitored in this regard. If this mutation does spread easily from person-to-person, H1N1 will take a whole new twist. Stay tuned.

A few organizations – mostly government – are using Twitter for public safety announcements. The Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD) updates a Twitter page with announcements on emergencies and looks like:

*UPDATE: 4057 S. Main St.* Fire now knocked down in just nine minutes with 34 firefighters; with no injuries reported – Devin Gales###

Pretty cool. They currently have about 6,000 followers. With only 140 characters allowed per tweet, it can be tough to give real instructions to the public beyond general info. What should I do when I read about an accident, or chemical spill, or explosion in my area? Should I evacuate, shelter-in-place, or take an alternative driving route? I think that’s where the limitation is.

However, when we can receive real-time information directly from trusted sources, we should be able to make better decisions as executives and families. They key is having access to information, training and tools that tell you what decisions you should make with the information.