H1N1 Pandemic…So Is It Over Yet?
Good news and bad news. The good news is that the H1N1 pandemic has peaked in the U.S. and we are seeing a significant decline in cases. Check out this great graph above. This shows the total number of cases reported in the U.S. in late October and November. The peak clearly occurred in the second week of November and we have seen declines ever since. In other parts of the world, the peak is just being reached in places like Japan and the Russian Federation.
So….it’s over right? No ! This is a two year pandemic with potentially several waves in the U.S. next year. One reason is that the southern hemisphere will continue to spread H1N1 in their flu seasons, which occur on opposite cycles from the northern hemisphere. The luxury of air travel and rapid movement of people around the world assures us that H1N1 will cycle back and forth between hemispheres for two years.
Also, we have been watching H1N1 D225G mutations. This is a new mutation that has been occurring in several countries that attack the lungs with the same characteristics in severity as the horrific 1918 pandemic. While it appears that D225G has not spread from person to person yet, it has a high mortality rate and is being closely monitored in this regard. If this mutation does spread easily from person-to-person, H1N1 will take a whole new twist. Stay tuned.
